Key Takeaways
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New York arrests more immigrants than all but three states and houses the fourth largest unauthorized immigrant population in the country, yet somehow ranks 8th, caught in a paradox where its own scale works against it. The culprit is concentration: Massachusetts and New Jersey, smaller and denser, pack more unauthorized immigrants per 100,000 residents, and in this index, density wins over volume every time.
The study conducted by The Mendoza Law Firm ranked all 50 states using a weighted index, 40% unauthorized population, 60% arrest data, to produce an Immigrant Crackdown Risk Score out of 100, revealing where immigrant communities face the greatest enforcement threat.
New York Crackdown Risk Profile
Key Metrics vs. National Standing (2023 – 2025)
| Metric | New York | National Rank |
| Crackdown Risk Score (out of 100) | 33.20 | 8 of 50 |
| Total Arrests (Sept 2023 to Oct 2025) | 13,944 | 4 of 50 |
| Average Annual Arrests (2023 to 2025) | 6,972 | 4 of 50 |
| Unauthorized Immigrants (2023) | 836,000 | 4 of 50 |
| Unauthorized Immigrants per 100,000 Residents | 4,272 | 13 of 50 |
| Share of All U.S. Immigration Arrests | 4.44% | 4th Highest |
New York’s 33.20 score reflects a state where 836,000 unauthorized immigrants spread across 19.6 million residents yields just 4,272 per 100,000, ranking 13th in concentration despite trailing only Texas, Florida, and California in arrests. Its 4.44% share of all national immigration arrests is the fourth highest in the country, confirming New York as a volume giant whose own population scale is the ceiling on its score.
New York vs. Neighboring States
Enforcement Activity and Immigrant Population Compared (2023 – 2025)
| State | Unauthorized Immigrants | Total Arrests | Avg. Annual Arrests | National Rank |
| New York | 836,000 | 13,944 | 6,972 | 8 of 50 |
| New Jersey | 476,000 | 9,413 | 4,707 | 7 of 50 |
| Massachusetts | 388,000 | 6,496 | 3,248 | 6 of 50 |
| Pennsylvania | 250,000 | 6,619 | 3,310 | 30 of 50 |
| Connecticut | 198,000 | 940 | 470 | 10 of 50 |
| Vermont | 5,000 | 55 | 28 | 47 of 50 |
New York leads all neighbors in arrests (13,944) and unauthorized immigrant population (836,000), yet New Jersey and Massachusetts outscore it because their smaller populations generate denser concentrations of 5,123 and 5,542 against New York’s 4,272. Pennsylvania’s 15.23 score despite 6,619 arrests and Vermont’s 47th-place rank with just 55 arrests bookend the extremes, confirming that population scale is the index’s great equalizer.
New York Leads Northeast Arrests, Third in Regional Score
Northeast States by Arrests, Population Concentration and Risk Score (2023 – 2025)
| State | Total Arrests | Avg. Annual Arrests | Undoc. per 100k | Risk Score |
| Massachusetts | 6,496 | 3,248 | 5,542 | 34.49 |
| New Jersey | 9,413 | 4,707 | 5,123 | 34.41 |
| New York | 13,944 | 6,972 | 4,272 | 33.20 |
| Connecticut | 940 | 470 | 5,474 | 30.01 |
| Rhode Island | 823 | 412 | 5,383 | 29.44 |
| Pennsylvania | 6,619 | 3,310 | 1,929 | 15.23 |
New York leads the Northeast in arrests at 13,944 yet ranks third in the region at 33.20, with Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island all carrying denser concentrations despite a combined arrest count that barely rivals New York’s alone. Pennsylvania’s 15.23 score with 6,619 arrests and just 1,929 per 100,000 closes the argument: concentration density, not arrest volume, is the index’s decisive variable.
MethodologyThe study focused exclusively on New York, drawing from a nationwide study of all 50 U.S. states by The Mendoza Law Firm. Unauthorized immigrant population estimates for 2023 were sourced from the Migration Policy Institute. Immigration arrest data covering September 2023 through October 2025 was obtained from deportationdata.org using ICE records. New York’s Crackdown Risk Score of 33.20 was derived from a weighted index combining an Unauthorized Immigrant Population Score (40%) and an Immigrant Arrest Score (60%), each normalized against the maximum values recorded across all 50 states. New York-specific comparisons with neighboring states and Northeast regional peers were computed using the same dataset. No projections or estimates beyond the stated study period were used.
Data Sources
Number of Unauthorized Immigrants 2023:
Immigration and Customs Enforcement Data:
https://deportationdata.org/data/ice.html
Research Datasheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1IWBTGO6ebIbqjtgsr5ZiKwh5FEWHR2wyfLDHdAiOUrA/edit?gid=0#gid=0
Study By:
https://mendozafirm.com
About The Mendoza Law Firm
The Mendoza Law Firm provides legal services in immigration law, personal injury and international professional recruitment for U.S. companies seeking qualified professionals from abroad. The firm advocates for immigrant communities through legal representation and public education initiatives.
