Ahead of the 2024 Election, Ipsos, Research Co., Marist College, and other pollsters predicted that Kamala Harris was going to become the new President. Spoiler alert – she did not!
Instead, Donald Trump (surprisingly) got his second term in the Oval Office. I put surprisingly in brackets because not everyone was surprised by the result. And I’m not talking about 76.7+ million Trump voters; I’m talking about oddsmakers from overseas sportsbooks.
Considering Trump was favored to win, it begs the question; do online sportsbooks help predict who will win US elections? I’ll take a closer look at the last few US elections to see if we can lean one way or the other.
Bookmakers are the Best Pollsters
Oddsmakers were right in 2024 – the -160 favorite Donald Trump won the election. They were right four years ago as well when Joe Biden (-175) beat him.
One day before the big showdown and @realDonaldTrump still got the lead!
The odds are heating up – we’ll be checking in every 4 hours to see if the lines are shifting. Buckle up, folks, this one’s going to be a wild ride! #Election2024 | #Harris2024 | #MAGA2024 pic.twitter.com/ZxZq4JJdSB
— GamblingSites.com (@Gambling_Sites) November 4, 2024
If you take a look at the historical US Presidential Election odds since 1972, you’ll see that the candidate with minus-money odds (e.g., -110) won the seat in the White House almost every time.
In fact, the betting favorite won in 28 of the 39 elections. That accounts for 71.79 percent, which, in the online betting world, is a pretty good number.
Another proof that oddsmakers have been doing a great job is that the favorite with POTUS odds shorter than -1000 lost only once. This happened back in 1948 when the -1800 favorite Thomas Dewey lost to Harry Truman.
The second biggest upset happened 68 years later. Who I’m talking about is the -550 favorite Hillary Clinton who lost the 2016 Election to Donald Trump.
Bookies Have Learned Their Lesson
The Ireland-based sportsbook PaddyPower was one of the biggest losers of the 2016 US Election. The sportsbook was so convinced that Clinton was going to win that they paid out $1.1 million to those who backed the Democratic candidate.
Those who backed former President Bill Clinton’s wife ended up with an 18% profit on their bet even though she lost. Those who backed Trump made even larger margins, as he was priced at +375 or more.
It was a big blow for sports betting sites, but it taught them a valuable lesson. As a result, they went way more conservative with their odds in the next two elections.
Should You Trust the Odds?
Based on the results of previous elections, the answer is yes. The candidate that was labeled the favorite lost only once in the 21st century (Hillary Clinton).
What this means is that if you had bet on the favorite in the last seven elections, you would’ve made a considerable profit overall.
They were right in the past, but will they predict correctly what’s going to happen in the 2028 Election? We’ll have to wait four more years to find out, but this doesn’t mean you should wait for so long to place your POTUS bets.
The thing is that betting odds are great right now, with the No. 1 favorite (J. D. Vance) being priced at +295.
Courtesy to Kevin Roberts
