Every NFL season has a way of reminding fans why it’s the most unpredictable major American sports league. From Cinderella stories to complete collapses, parity rules the gridiron. In 2025, a new group of dark horses is stirring hope among fanbases that saw little to celebrate in 2024.
Whether it’s rejuvenated rosters, healthy returns, or a kinder schedule, a few former bottom-dwellers are well-positioned to shake up the standings this year. Let’s dive into the most intriguing worst-to-first candidates—and the forces that could make their leap possible.
The 49ers Are Not Your Typical “Last Place” Team
San Francisco might have finished 6-11, but their record doesn’t tell the full story. Despite that finish, they ranked ninth in ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) and had a positive DVOA of 6.7%—the highest ever recorded by an 11-loss team since 1978. This wasn’t a case of poor play; it was a case of poor luck and brutal injuries.
In 2024, the 49ers led the league in adjusted games lost to injury, missing stars like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams for significant chunks. With these key players returning, combined with a much softer 2025 schedule that includes matchups against the Giants, Browns, and Bears, San Francisco has the clearest path back to the top. In fact, their 35.8% chance to win the NFC West is the highest among any last-place team from a season ago.
Even with a projected win total of 10.5, expectations are high, especially given the Rams’ tougher path through opponents like the Eagles and Ravens. If health holds, the 49ers could go from overlooked to dominant again.
Patriots Reload, Not Rebuild
The New England Patriots may have posted a dismal 4-13 record in 2024, but there’s reason to believe in a significant turnaround. First, rookie quarterback Drake Maye impressed last season with a 58.6 QBR, ranking 17th among qualified passers. This year, he’s surrounded by improved protection and firepower. Stefon Diggs headlines a retooled offense alongside rookie Kyle Williams and veteran Morgan Moses.
On defense, additions like Carlton Davis III and Milton Williams signal a concerted effort to revamp both sides of the ball. At FanDuel Sportsbook, the Patriots are no longer considered longshots, reflecting optimism that new head coach Mike Vrabel can bring discipline and experience to a team hungry for redemption.
Schedule strength matters, and the Patriots have one of the softest in the league (28th by DVOA). Though the AFC East remains competitive, New England’s playoff odds (33.9%) suggest a wild-card berth isn’t far-fetched. With a win total of 7.5, they’re positioned to surprise.
Caleb Williams and the Bears Have the Talent—But Not the Schedule
Chicago is building something real. With second-year quarterback Caleb Williams leading the offense, a fortified line in front of him, and a new head coach in Ben Johnson, the Bears are no longer an outfit to be easily dismissed. FPI now views them as an above-average team despite a 5-12 finish in 2024.
Unfortunately, the road ahead is brutal. According to some calculations, the Bears face the second-hardest schedule in the league, with all three NFC North rivals finishing with winning records last season. They also draw the AFC North and NFC East, plus tough road games in San Francisco and Las Vegas.
Still, their 8.5 win total suggests potential if they can weather the early storm. Should Williams make the sophomore leap and continue trending upward in the broader landscape of NFL news and player trends, Chicago may very well defy the odds.
The Saints Could Win a Weak NFC South by Default
Don’t mistake the Saints’ 5-12 record and dead-last FPI rating for a hopeless case. The NFC South is a mess. Tampa Bay (FPI rank: 14th) leads a division where the second-best team is projected 26th. That’s why, despite New Orleans’ low overall forecast, they still hold an 11.6% chance to win the division.
The question is whether rookie quarterback Tyler Shough can hold the offense together. As a second-round pick, expectations should be tempered. More concerning is the defense, which features aging veterans like Tyrann Mathieu and Cameron Jordan. Projected to be the league’s worst unit, any success will rely on squeezing one more season from its older core.
With a modest 5.5-win projection, even reaching .500 would exceed expectations. But in this division, that might be enough.
Las Vegas Isn’t a Division Favorite—But Don’t Count Them Out
The Raiders sit in a brutal division, one still ruled by Kansas City and flanked by playoff-caliber teams in Denver and Los Angeles. That’s one of the reasons their odds of winning the AFC West are just 7.1%. But playoff hopes? They’re alive.
Las Vegas has a better shot at a postseason berth than three other last-place finishers, thanks largely to the addition of veteran quarterback Geno Smith. While the 5.5-win projection seems conservative, it leaves room for overperformance. The defense remains a concern, but even incremental improvement could lift the Raiders into the wild-card conversation.
With no elite expectations, this team has room to grow quietly and capitalize on any division chaos.
The Titans and Browns Are in Development Mode
Tennessee and Cleveland round out the least likely turnaround stories, though each has one bright spot.
For Tennessee, it’s first overall pick Cameron Ward, who steps into a starting role as Will Levis moves aside after posting the worst QBR among qualifiers last year. Still, rookie quarterbacks historically struggle. Tennessee’s defense is also projected to rank near the bottom of the league. A 5.5-win total underscores their developmental focus.
Cleveland finds itself in similar territory. Their quarterback situation, headlined by rookies Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, offers more questions than answers. Add a difficult schedule and their 4.5-win projection, and expectations remain low. Yet the defense, led by Myles Garrett, could rebound after a surprising drop in DVOA last season.
These teams are more about future promise than 2025 success, but even a few surprises could change that narrative.
What’s Brewing Beneath the Surface
If there’s a pattern to NFL success, it’s that there is no pattern. Just two years ago, the Texans went from 3-13-1 to AFC South champions. In 2024, no team made that leap, but history is cyclical.
The San Francisco 49ers are in the best shape to execute that turnaround in 2025, while the Patriots, Bears, and even Saints carry just enough edge, talent, and opportunity to disrupt the standings. These underdogs might not all go from worst to first, but don’t be surprised when one does.
