The New Hampshire primaries are the first major test of any Republican candidate’s popularity in an election year, and former President Donald Trump appears to have passed with flying colors.
The 77-year-old seized victory over Nikki Haley, winning New Hampshire to kick off his path to the nomination for the upcoming election.
Trump has defied his critics on numerous occasions in a political career that stretches back over a decade. Does his victory in New Hampshire and a strong showing in the Iowa caucus mean that we can rule Haley out completely and assume that a Trump versus Biden showdown is guaranteed?
Trump secures victory in the liberal northeast
Moderates and traditionalists within the Republican party were likely disappointed on January 23 when Nikki Haley – a candidate that has tried to paint herself as the voice of reason against Trump’s impulsiveness – failed to secure victory in one of the least right wing Republican states.
New Hampshire has always displayed a measured type of conservatism, which some had expected to resonate well with Haley’s practical and non-controversial approach when compared with Trump’s oversized personality.
Unfortunately for Haley, largely due to his huge popularity in the lower income parts of the state and among less educated voters, Donald Trump clinched victory in New Hampshire in addition to his win in Iowa.
As a former UN ambassador, Nikki Haley has all the credentials to appeal to a moderate and well-educated voter base. However, this traditional credibility doesn’t seem to be standing the 52 year-old in good stead in her campaign against Trump. The former president has been relentless in his criticism of Haley, refusing to match her diplomatic approach when criticizing him.
His most recent tirades against having included politically incorrect references to her Indian heritage and implications that she is not fit to hold office.
Trump’s personal attacks, which are a notorious feature of his campaign tactics, have alienated some voters on the left of the Republican spectrum, but with income inequality in the United States increasing by the year his theatrical political style is finding an increasing number of supporters in the lower income category.
Trump’s victory in New Hampshire has raised serious questions about Haley’s ability to pose any kind of threat to his final nomination since his style of campaigning and general persona is likely to be even more popular in less affluent states, especially those in the South and the rust belt.
Trump may be on track for a victory in Haley’s own home state of South Carolina, which she recently told journalists she “doesn’t necessarily need to win” in order to secure the nomination. Comments like these, which Trump supporters are taking as a type of concession, are adding to the weight of evidence in favor of the former president.
What opinion polls tell us about Trump versus Haley after New Hampshire
With the New Hampshire primary out of the way, all eyes are on South Carolina where voters will choose their preferred Republican candidate on February 24.
Ordinarily, Nikki Haley would be the favorite going into this race as a native-born South Carolinian and the former governor of the state. However, even these impressive credentials don’t seem to be enough when it comes to countering Trump’s growing popularity.
A recent poll by Fabrizio, Lee, and Associates indicates that Trump is not only leading Haley in the state but currently enjoys a two-to-one lead over the former governor.
More than 600 voters took part in the survey at the end of January with Trump commanding 66% of the vote against Haley 31%. If this trend continues, it won’t be hard to bet who will be the next president, however, as bookies place Trump at even odds with Biden at the moment when it comes to general elections, it may be challenging to decide between the two major candidates as time goes on.
Given that, Haley supporters had expected their candidate to secure an easy win in her home state even if victory in other parts of the country proved more elusive. Recent polling odds are a harsh reality check for the Haley campaign, which some analysts have described as a last-ditch attempt to resuscitate a failed campaign.
Should Haley drop out of the race, her decision would put her in the same company as Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who was forced to face the reality of Trump’s enduring popularity and make way for the former president to clinch the nomination.
Final thoughts: a Trump versus Biden showdown looks inevitable.
With the number of months left before the US election approaching single digits, Donald Trump looks set to secure the Republican nomination – putting him in direct competition with current president Joe Biden in November.
Nikki Haley’s attempt to challenge Trump for the candidacy appears to be producing poor results and may be remembered as a political gesture that failed to catch the hearts and minds of American voters in 2024.
The next few months will prove crucial and determine whether Trump’s popularity is as powerful as it appears. Voters and betting fans alike will want to keep an eye on the latest news developments as the campaign trail winds its way to Washington DC.
Company name: Acceleron Media, UAB
Reg. code: 306091903
VAT code: LT100015134117
Address: Upes g. 23, 08128 Vilnius, Lithuania
